Ongoing Qatari-mediated talks between the United States and Iran center on conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic, with Tehran signaling readiness for implementation within two days if Washington lifts sanctions imposed after the collapsed Islamabad MoU, reinstates oil export waivers, releases frozen assets, reduces regional military presence, and recognizes new Iran-Oman shipping lanes. Recent drafts link any Hormuz framework to Iranian nuclear steps such as uranium stockpile transfer or enrichment limits, with China eyed as a potential guarantor and Doha proposed for direct negotiations. US Vice President JD Vance’s letter to Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei has prompted positive Iranian commentary on tone, yet both sides continue war rhetoric and no qualifying diplomatic agreement has been announced. Trader consensus on near-term resolution by late 2026 reflects these sequencing disputes, verification requirements, and linkage to broader regional conflicts including Lebanon.