US policy toward Iran continues to emphasize maximum pressure on the Islamic Republic through sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and counterterrorism measures, with no official statements or actions indicating recognition of Reza Pahlavi as leader. Following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death and related military developments, the Trump administration has highlighted the regime's destabilizing role while expressing openness to negotiations and broad support for Iranian aspirations, without endorsing any specific exile figure or transitional authority. Diplomatic norms and historical precedent further limit formal recognition of opposition leaders absent control on the ground or a clear government-in-exile framework. Trader consensus at 96.8% on "No" aligns with this absence of concrete signals. A late 2026 policy reversal remains possible only through an explicit White House announcement tied to verified regime collapse and internal Iranian acceptance of Pahlavi.