Recent U.S. diplomatic pressure has prompted Panama to address concerns over foreign influence at canal terminals through domestic legal processes, including a Supreme Court ruling annulling CK Hutchison’s concessions and subsequent government seizure of the Balboa and Cristóbal ports for temporary operation by Maersk and MSC units. Panama has also offered priority transit for U.S. warships and engaged directly with U.S. officials on treaty compliance. These steps have reduced perceived Chinese leverage without altering Panamanian sovereignty over the waterway, which has operated under the Panama Canal Authority since 1999. Traders assign a 96.5% probability to “No” because any unilateral U.S. assertion of control would face substantial treaty, alliance, and economic barriers, though escalation risks remain if bilateral accommodations collapse before the 2027 resolution date.