Gentle Mates holds a dominant 90% implied probability in the VALORANT offseason market for Alfajer’s next team, driven by repeated reports from Sheep Esports and other outlets confirming the Turkish flex player’s expected departure from Fnatic after five seasons. Gentle Mates cleared its entire 2026 roster and coaching staff in late October to rebuild as a new VCT EMEA partner, positioning Alfajer as a cornerstone alongside potential reunions with former teammates like Boaster. The transfer window opens November 2, aligning with the timing of these moves. Lower probabilities for Pacific Esports, Team Heretics, Natus Vincere, and others reflect the absence of comparable credible links. Confirmation remains pending official announcements, however, and shifts could occur if Alfajer explores alternate EMEA options or if Fnatic retains key pieces amid roster turnover.