Nicolás Maduro retains an 84% implied probability as Venezuela’s leader at the end of 2026 because traders view formal institutional continuity and the absence of scheduled elections as outweighing his January 2026 capture by U.S. forces. Delcy Rodríguez, installed as acting president under Supreme Court rulings interpreting his absence as temporary, has consolidated authority through cabinet changes, hydrocarbon legislation, and U.S. oil cooperation while distancing the government from Maduro’s personal circle. Negotiations with select opposition factions continue on Supreme Court renewal and electoral authority reform, with a U.S.-backed sequence targeting institutional changes by mid-December followed by a vacancy declaration and possible 2027 vote. María Corina Machado’s late-October return has intensified calls for an earlier timeline, yet no presidential ballot is set before year-end, leaving the current power structure’s legal framework the dominant near-term factor.