Incumbent Republican Phil Scott seeks a sixth two-year term in the November 3, 2026, Vermont gubernatorial election, facing Democratic economist and first-time candidate Amanda Janoo. Scott maintains a substantial edge in trader consensus due to his long record of strong approval ratings, consistent reelection by wide margins, and established crossover appeal in a state that has favored Democrats in presidential contests. Recent polls show the race tightening to a narrow Scott lead around 49-46 percent, driven by Janoo’s September fundraising advantage, endorsements from figures such as Bernie Sanders, and debate focus on issues including healthcare access and education costs. External spending from the Republican Governors Association has supported Scott amid these shifts, while forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican. The market pricing reflects incumbency fundamentals and historical performance even as late polling indicates a more competitive environment than in prior cycles.