Incumbent Republican Phil Scott holds a lead in the most recent polling averages for the November 3 Vermont gubernatorial election, supported by his long record of strong performance in the state and a history of exceeding survey expectations. Democratic challenger Amanda Janoo has closed the margin in some late-September surveys through emphasis on universal primary care funded by higher taxes on wealthy residents and second homes, along with grassroots fundraising and a high-profile endorsement from Senator Bernie Sanders. Forecasters rate the contest Likely Republican or Lean Republican, reflecting Scott’s incumbency advantages in a state with a Democratic lean. Trader consensus on these outcomes incorporates the tight late polling, Scott’s track record, and the limited time remaining for shifts before Election Day.