Recent polling across multiple firms shows the Liberal–National Coalition holding a consistent 54–46 to 55–45 two-party-preferred lead over Labor ahead of the 28 November Victorian state election, driven by primary vote fragmentation with One Nation near 22 percent and the Greens around 15 percent. Labor’s primary support has settled near 24 percent following the July leadership transition from Jacinta Allan to Premier Ben Carroll, while the Coalition’s primary vote sits near 30–33 percent and Opposition Leader Jess Wilson leads as preferred premier. Traders price the Coalition outcome at 86 percent implied probability, reflecting the scale of the swing since 2022 and the limited time remaining for Labor to reverse the trend before election day.