Recent US-mediated diplomatic efforts have produced agreement to resume trilateral technical-level talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, potentially in Abu Dhabi or Switzerland after November 10, 2026, following separate meetings between US envoy Steve Witkoff and both leaders. However, Moscow continues to condition any direct Putin-Zelenskyy summit on extensive prior preparation and has reiterated that such a meeting should occur in Moscow, a location Kyiv has consistently rejected in favor of neutral venues. Battlefield dynamics, unresolved disputes over territory, security guarantees, and military size remain central sticking points, with ongoing strikes underscoring limited immediate progress toward a leaders’ encounter. These factors underpin trader consensus favoring no direct meeting through the end of 2027, while keeping probabilities for specific neutral or third-party sites low pending concrete scheduling or breakthroughs.