China leads trader consensus at 84.5% due to active diplomatic preparations for a possible trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen. Kremlin officials have confirmed Beijing’s planning for such a gathering, following Putin’s October proposal during calls with Trump and subsequent U.S. statements indicating openness to discussions centered on denuclearization rather than Ukraine. This momentum, amid recent U.S.-Russia contacts including sanctions relief and energy deals, has concentrated expectations on China as the immediate venue. The 14% probability assigned to no meeting by December 31 reflects remaining uncertainty over final confirmation and agenda alignment, while other locations remain below 1% absent comparable scheduling or signals.