Recent diplomatic exchanges have elevated China as the frontrunner for a Trump-Putin meeting, with Kremlin officials confirming preparations for a possible trilateral summit alongside Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the November 18-19 APEC gathering in Shenzhen. Putin first floated the idea during October calls with Trump, and the U.S. president has signaled openness provided the agenda centers on denuclearization rather than Ukraine exclusively. These developments, including envoy talks in St. Petersburg and formal invitations tied to the China venue, have concentrated trader consensus around that location. Uncertainty over exact timing, agenda alignment, or whether a bilateral session occurs at all this year sustains the secondary probability assigned to no meeting by year-end, while distant alternatives reflect limited supporting signals from primary actors.