Persistent deadlock over territorial concessions, security guarantees, and ceasefire terms has kept direct presidential engagement between Zelenskyy and Putin off the table despite US-mediated diplomatic activity in October 2026. Recent US envoy shuttles produced agreement in principle for technical-level trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi in early November, yet these remain preparatory rather than leader-level summits, with Moscow continuing to condition progress on battlefield outcomes and rejecting formats that include European parties. The resulting trader consensus of 92.5 percent for no meeting before 2027 reflects the pattern of stalled negotiations since early 2026. A rapid breakthrough at the technical stage or external pressure yielding a leaders’ summit in a neutral venue could still shift probabilities before year-end.