Persistent high oil prices above $100 per barrel through late October 2026, driven by restricted Strait of Hormuz traffic amid unresolved US-Iran tensions, have positioned the "No Agreement or Oil ≥ $80" branches as dominant. Negotiations on reopening the waterway, including draft frameworks for sanctions relief and nuclear steps, advanced in late October but produced no binding agreement by the October 23 cutoff, keeping the conditional probability of a Democratic Senate majority at 74.3% versus 25.8% for Republicans. Forecasts show Democrats favored in key 2026 races, with oil remaining elevated well above the $80 threshold into early November. Upcoming midterm results on November 3 represent the final catalyst for resolution.