Reza Pahlavi’s repeated public statements of readiness to return “at the first possible opportunity” and lead a democratic transition have not shifted trader odds above low single digits, as the Islamic Republic maintains effective control over borders, security forces, and airspace. Ongoing protests driven by economic hardship and political grievances have prompted Pahlavi to call for strikes and a National Cooperation Campaign, yet no verified regime collapse or safe entry corridor has materialized. His upcoming November 3–7 Europe trip for meetings and an award underscores continued international advocacy rather than imminent travel to Iranian territory. Historical precedent and current security dynamics indicate that any physical entry would require a fundamental weakening of regime enforcement capacity before late 2026 resolution windows close.