Russian forces have conducted sustained offensive operations against Kostiantynivka since October 2025 as part of efforts to advance on the Donbas fortress belt, achieving tactical gains in southern and central districts through infiltration and drone-supported assaults. Russia claimed full capture in July 2026, yet independent assessments and Ukrainian reports confirm contested control, with Ukrainian units retaining positions in northwestern neighborhoods and along the Kryvyi Torets river line into late October. Recent General Staff updates show continued daily Russian attacks on the axis, including near Druzhkivka and surrounding settlements, though confirmed advances remain limited amid Ukrainian counteractions and high attrition. The protracted urban fighting, combined with logistics strain and Ukrainian defensive reinforcements, shapes trader focus on whether incremental Russian pressure can achieve complete seizure within any specified resolution window.