The near-certain trader consensus that the 2026 midterm elections will proceed on schedule reflects the fixed constitutional requirement for House elections every two years, with no recent legislation, court rulings, or executive actions altering the November timeline. Primary elections, ballot preparation, and early voting have advanced without interruption across states. Historical precedent confirms that midterms have occurred through wars, economic crises, and public health emergencies. While implied probabilities capture this structural certainty, remote scenarios that could still shift outcomes include a national emergency declaration postponing voting dates or widespread technical failures in election infrastructure, though neither has precedent in the modern era.