The Trump administration's January 2026 operation capturing Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, followed by expanded counter-cartel strikes on vessels and limited land targets, has shaped trader views without triggering a full-scale invasion of any Latin American country. Subsequent deployments of several hundred U.S. troops for joint training and exercises in Panama, Colombia, and Honduras, alongside drone movements and partnerships under the Shield of the Americas coalition, have focused on narcotics interdiction and regional cooperation rather than territorial conquest. Official statements from U.S. Southern Command have denied invasion preparations for Cuba despite heightened rhetoric and sanctions pressure. With 2026 nearing its end and no comparable large-scale military occupation underway, the 94.5% implied probability for no invasion reflects the contained scope of these actions and absence of broader escalations.