Wisconsin's Elections Commission warned in July 2026 that an 1849 statute disqualifies voters who wager on election outcomes they participate in, citing potential administrative challenges and felony referrals for intentional violations. Traders assign only a 3% chance of any actual disenfranchisement before November 3 because the commission lacks tools to monitor prediction market platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, relies on third-party challenges for enforcement, and faces ongoing litigation questioning the law's constitutionality and continued validity after prior constitutional changes. No documented cases of disqualification have emerged since the guidance, and officials have emphasized education over active policing. Late developments such as successful voter challenges, court rulings on pending suits, or new enforcement directives could still alter outcomes before election day.