balthazar

Joined Jan 2025·38.4K views

$298.4K

Positions Value

$116.4K

Biggest Win

92,731

Markets Traded

Total PnL: +$1.2M
Total Volume: 81.8M

Profit/Loss

$5,904.06

Past Day

Market

Avg

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

43,000.0 shares

50¢

90.5¢

$38,915.00$17,415.00 (81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

No 50¢

43,000.0 shares

$38,915.00$17,415.00 (81%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 78.5¢

30,492.9 shares

78.5¢

72.5¢

$22,107.37-$1,823.59 (-7.62%)

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

Yes 78.5¢

30,492.9 shares

$22,107.37-$1,823.59 (-7.62%)

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Yes 71.8¢

14,046.7 shares

71.8¢

98.9¢

$13,892.20$3,804.69 (37.72%)

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?

Yes 71.8¢

14,046.7 shares

$13,892.20$3,804.69 (37.72%)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?

Yes 91.7¢

8,848.2 shares

91.7¢

99.9¢

$8,834.89$721.84 (8.9%)

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 30?

Yes 91.7¢

8,848.2 shares

$8,834.89$721.84 (8.9%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 72.3¢

9,651.9 shares

72.3¢

86¢

$8,300.65$1,321.30 (18.93%)

Trump meets with Putin by December 31?

Yes 72.3¢

9,651.9 shares

$8,300.65$1,321.30 (18.93%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes 20.2¢

22,080.2 shares

20.2¢

27.5¢

$6,072.05$1,618.38 (36.34%)

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?

Yes 20.2¢

22,080.2 shares

$6,072.05$1,618.38 (36.34%)

Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?

Yes 11.1¢

6,044.3 shares

11.1¢

99¢

$5,983.85$5,312.27 (791.01%)

Will Iliana Iotova win the second round of the 2026 Bulgarian presidential election by at least 12%?

Yes 11.1¢

6,044.3 shares

$5,983.85$5,312.27 (791.01%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 92.7¢

5,781.9 shares

92.7¢

96.1¢

$5,553.56$195.10 (3.64%)

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

Yes 92.7¢

5,781.9 shares

$5,553.56$195.10 (3.64%)

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

Yes 62¢

6,680.6 shares

62¢

80.4¢

$5,371.20$1,228.72 (29.66%)

Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)?

Yes 62¢

6,680.6 shares

$5,371.20$1,228.72 (29.66%)

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Yes 54.9¢

5,082.2 shares

54.9¢

95.9¢

$4,871.24$2,082.82 (74.7%)

US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?

Yes 54.9¢

5,082.2 shares

$4,871.24$2,082.82 (74.7%)

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

Yes 89.2¢

4,748.4 shares

89.2¢

95.8¢

$4,546.61$311.42 (7.35%)

Will there be no Hormuz agreement?

Yes 89.2¢

4,748.4 shares

$4,546.61$311.42 (7.35%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

43,000.0 shares

50¢

9.5¢

$4,085.00-$17,415.00 (-81%)

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

Yes 50¢

43,000.0 shares

$4,085.00-$17,415.00 (-81%)

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

No 99.4¢

2,601.1 shares

99.4¢

99.2¢

$2,580.26-$5.94 (-0.23%)

Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?

No 99.4¢

2,601.1 shares

$2,580.26-$5.94 (-0.23%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 95.7¢

2,500.0 shares

95.7¢

97.2¢

$2,428.74$35.80 (1.5%)

Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?

No 95.7¢

2,500.0 shares

$2,428.74$35.80 (1.5%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,452.1 shares

95.3¢

98¢

$2,401.82$64.36 (2.75%)

Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?

Yes 95.3¢

2,452.1 shares

$2,401.82$64.36 (2.75%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 63.7¢

2,757.2 shares

63.7¢

86.3¢

$2,378.08$621.48 (35.38%)

Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Yes 63.7¢

2,757.2 shares

$2,378.08$621.48 (35.38%)

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Yes 58.8¢

3,265.5 shares

58.8¢

72.5¢

$2,365.88$446.14 (23.24%)

Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?

Yes 58.8¢

3,265.5 shares

$2,365.88$446.14 (23.24%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 49¢

3,200.6 shares

49¢

72¢

$2,304.44$735.45 (46.87%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 49¢

3,200.6 shares

$2,304.44$735.45 (46.87%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 15.1¢

8,164.8 shares

15.1¢

27.5¢

$2,245.33$1,012.99 (82.2%)

Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?

Yes 15.1¢

8,164.8 shares

$2,245.33$1,012.99 (82.2%)

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Yes 62.4¢

2,866.2 shares

62.4¢

70.9¢

$2,030.72$242.71 (13.57%)

Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?

Yes 62.4¢

2,866.2 shares

$2,030.72$242.71 (13.57%)