Incumbent Democrat Ricardo Samaniego holds a commanding 97.7% implied probability in the 2026 El Paso County Judge race, reflecting his unopposed Democratic primary win, established record since 2019, and the county’s consistent partisan lean. Recent campaign activity centers on property taxes and budget management, with Samaniego highlighting economic development, grant funding for mandates, and prior crisis leadership, while Republican challenger Minerva Torres Shelton, a retired FBI agent who won her March primary, emphasizes line-by-line audits and spending restraint. Early voting through late October has already drawn substantial participation ahead of the November 3 general election. The 0.9% on Torres Shelton aligns with limited crossover potential in this jurisdiction, though late developments such as turnout surges among specific voting blocs or unforeseen campaign events could narrow the gap before certification.