Byron Donalds leads David Jolly in recent polling averages by roughly four points among likely voters, consistent with Florida’s Republican partisan lean and the state’s history of GOP gubernatorial victories since 1998. Donalds secured the Republican nomination in August and benefits from endorsements by President Trump and term-limited Governor Ron DeSantis, along with a substantial fundraising advantage. Jolly, the Democratic nominee and former Republican congressman, performs better among independents and has drawn support from some crossover voters, narrowing the contest in a state where turnout patterns and early voting splits remain key variables. With the November 3 election two days away, traders appear to price in these structural and polling factors as the primary drivers of the current 65.5–35.5 split.