The redrawn Alabama 2nd District map, implemented after the 2026 legislative session and Supreme Court action, shifted the seat toward a Republican lean with a partisan voting index around R+7 and an estimated Trump margin of 14 points. This structural change underpins trader consensus favoring Rhett Marques despite Shomari Figures’ incumbency. Recent polling averages show the candidates nearly tied or with a narrow Republican edge, while heavy outside spending exceeding $11 million—led by Democratic groups—has kept the contest within striking distance. High Democratic fundraising and turnout mobilization among key voting blocs have narrowed the gap from earlier expectations. With Election Day two days away, the implied probabilities reflect these offsetting factors in a race forecasters rate as a toss-up or lean Republican.