Recent polling averages place Mary Peltola narrowly ahead of incumbent Dan Sullivan by 1–3 points in the final round under Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system, with Election Day on November 3. This positioning sustains elevated probabilities for Peltola margins of 0–6 percent while keeping Sullivan’s comparable bands competitive, as late-October surveys from Alaska Survey Research, Data for Progress, and others show consistent single-digit spreads. Incumbency advantages, fundraising edges, and voter second-choice patterns in the RCV count have prevented decisive separation, leaving trader consensus centered on a tight outcome where small shifts in turnout or ballot exhaustion could alter the final margin.