Recent polls show Mary Peltola holding a narrow 1- to 3-point lead over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska's 2026 Senate race, with results clustered near 47-49% for each in the final days before the November 3 election. This closeness, combined with ranked-choice voting and minor candidates splitting the first-round vote, keeps the Polymarket's top outcomes evenly split at 50% between Candidate A and Other while concentrating probability on Peltola's 0-3% and 3-6% victory margins. Sullivan's incumbency and the state's Republican-leaning electorate offset Peltola's polling edge, leaving the first-round margin sensitive to turnout among independents and late shifts in voter preferences.