Trader consensus assigns overwhelming probability to a government shutdown occurring alongside Democratic control of the House after the 2026 elections. This reflects persistent legislative gridlock over appropriations bills and continuing resolutions, where divided government often produces funding impasses without last-minute deals. Recent budget negotiations and polling trends in key districts have reinforced expectations of sustained partisan divides through the election cycle. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include late bipartisan compromises on spending measures, significant shifts in turnout among swing-state voters, or unforeseen economic or candidate developments that change the path to majority control.