Anthropic’s 92% market-implied probability of holding the higher valuation by year-end reflects its $965 billion post-money mark from the May Series H round, which already surpassed OpenAI’s $852 billion March valuation, alongside faster annualized revenue growth to $47–65 billion run rates versus OpenAI’s adjusted $50 billion net figure. Recent investor days and IPO preparations have tempered Anthropic’s targets to around $1.5 trillion, yet this still positions it ahead of OpenAI’s trimmed $1.25 trillion private round amid pushback. Overlapping sovereign investors and differing revenue recognition practices add uncertainty, but Anthropic’s completed pricing and public-market catalyst provide the clearest near-term support. A successful OpenAI close above $1.4 trillion before mid-November could narrow the gap, while any IPO slippage or further revenue shortfalls would reinforce the current consensus.