Incumbent Democrat Kris Mayes maintains an 86.5% implied probability in the Arizona attorney general race due to her consistent polling leads and incumbency advantages ahead of the November 3 general election. Recent surveys, including Noble Predictive Insights showing her at 50% to Warren Petersen's 46% among likely voters, reflect modest but steady support, reinforced by early voting patterns favoring Democrats in down-ballot contests. Petersen, the Republican state senate president who won his primary, trails amid a broader competitive environment where generic ballot and top-of-ticket trends provide limited tailwinds. Trader consensus prices the outcome as a clear but not certain favorite for Mayes, with any late shifts in turnout or undecided voters capable of narrowing the margin before polls close.