The Bank of Russia’s October 23 decision to hold the key rate at 14% for a second consecutive meeting, combined with an upward revision of the 2026 inflation forecast to 7.1-7.6%, has anchored trader expectations for the December 18 policy meeting. Persistent price pressures, with underlying inflation running at a 5-6% annualized pace and no clear deceleration, high inflation expectations, and temporary supply-side strains—including fuel price spikes from refinery disruptions—have prompted the central bank to signal the need for moderately tight monetary conditions over a longer period. Its updated 2027 average rate forecast of 12.5-13.5% leaves only modest scope for easing before year-end. These factors support the dominant market pricing for no change or a limited 25 basis point reduction while rendering larger moves or rate hikes improbable absent a sharp shift in incoming data.