Brazil’s 12% crude oil export tax, extended through early November 2026 to finance diesel subsidies amid Brent prices above $100 per barrel, faces ongoing industry litigation after lower-court injunctions were overturned by appellate rulings in September. Oil producers, represented by ABEP, continue pressing constitutional challenges centered on the tax’s revenue-raising purpose rather than regulatory intent, with appeals potentially reaching the STF. Government officials plan a Camex review on November 5 that could authorize another extension, while fiscal neutrality from export revenue remains a key Treasury consideration. Trader positioning reflects uncertainty over the pace and outcome of higher-court review against the backdrop of sustained high oil prices and subsidy costs.