Iliana Iotova holds a commanding position in the runoff margin market due to her status as incumbent acting president, strong backing from Prime Minister Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria and allied left-leaning groups, and expected consolidation of first-round votes from eliminated candidates. The first round produced a narrow 34.76% to 31.95% split with record-low turnout, yet exit polls on November 1 project Iotova at 50.7–52.5% against Andrey Gyurov’s 43.4–44.7%, reflecting her advantage on foreign policy caution and domestic continuity. The pro-Western opposition’s platform has not closed the gap enough to alter trader consensus. A significantly narrower final margin would require unusually high mobilization among Gyurov’s supporters or late swings among those who selected “neither” in polling.