California voters face Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above $1 billion as of January 1, 2026, alongside opposing measures in Propositions 41 and 42 that would block implementation if they receive more affirmative votes. Trader consensus favoring the wealth tax's defeat stems from extensive opposition spending by affected individuals and groups, including reported contributions exceeding $100 million, alongside structural ballot rules that prioritize higher vote totals among competing initiatives. Recent polling shows divided or narrow support for the tax, while opponents highlight risks of capital flight and revenue volatility. With the November 3 election imminent, late shifts in turnout or court rulings on post-election certification remain the primary variables that could alter the outcome.