Morena holds the leading position in the Colima Congress election market at 60.5% implied probability, reflecting its status as the incumbent party with the current governor and strong national momentum ahead of the June 6, 2027, vote for 25 state deputies. The party benefits from the highest public campaign financing allocation for the 2026-2027 local process, early candidate coordination through internal surveys, and polling leads for its coalition with PT and PVEM in the concurrent gubernatorial race. Smaller shares for PT and PVEM align with their alliance role, while opposition parties like PAN, PRI, and MC register minimal probabilities amid fragmented support and lower funding. The electoral calendar, now underway since mid-October 2026 with precampaigns set for December, leaves room for shifts through coalition negotiations or turnout dynamics in this multi-party contest.