Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the January 2027 FOMC meeting, reflecting recent inflation data that has held near the Fed’s 2% target alongside a still-resilient labor market. October 2026 CPI readings showed core prices advancing at a measured pace, supporting the current policy stance while limiting expectations for near-term easing. A 24.5% probability of a 25 basis point hike captures residual concerns over services inflation and potential upside surprises in upcoming employment reports. Key near-term catalysts include the November jobs release and December FOMC communications, which could alter the market-implied rate path if labor market or price trends shift materially.