The leading Hike–Pause–Hike path for the September–December FOMC meetings reflects the actual September 25-basis-point tightening to the 3.75–4.00% target range amid persistently elevated inflation, followed by the October 28 hold that produced a 10–2 vote with two dissents favoring further tightening. Market-implied odds align with futures pricing an roughly 80% probability of another 25-basis-point increase at the December 8–9 meeting, supported by resilient GDP growth, strong productivity, and recent CPI prints showing broad price pressures. The September dot plot’s median endpoint of 4.1% for 2026 reinforces trader consensus for additional firming before year-end, while incoming data ahead of the next Summary of Economic Projections remains the key swing factor.