Recent polling averages place Marine Le Pen well ahead in first-round intentions for the April 2027 election, leaving a fragmented contest for second among Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Édouard Philippe, Raphaël Glucksmann, and lower-polling figures such as David Lisnard and Bruno Retailleau. October 2026 social protests and cost-of-living tensions lifted Mélenchon’s share to around 17 percent while centrist infighting between Philippe and Gabriel Attal eroded the center’s combined support, allowing the left candidate to edge ahead for the runoff spot in multiple surveys. Trader consensus reflects this positioning, with Mélenchon holding the clearest edge for second place. Further separation could come from candidate consolidation on the center or right, additional protest momentum, or shifts in turnout among left-leaning or undecided voters ahead of the first-round vote.