Coalition strains from September 2026 state election losses, where the CDU and SPD suffered sharp declines while the AfD posted record results, have driven low public approval for Chancellor Friedrich Merz and widespread expectations of an early government collapse. A YouGov poll found only 23% of Germans believe the CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition will last until the 2029 federal election. Recent triggers include Labor Minister Bärbel Bas’s October resignation amid coalition attacks and the October 31 departure of Union parliamentary leader Jens Spahn, alongside ongoing disputes over economic reforms, pensions, and handling of extremist parties. Merz has reaffirmed his commitment to completing reforms by year-end and rejected replacement talks, yet internal CDU speculation centers on a possible Kanzlertausch favoring figures like Hendrik Wüst. The next federal election remains scheduled for 2029 absent a no-confidence vote or coalition breakup.