Spider-Man: Brand New Day commands overwhelming trader consensus at 91% implied probability thanks to its record-shattering 2026 run, including the biggest domestic opening ever at $360 million, a $958 million North American total that surpassed Star Wars: The Force Awakens, and a $2.52 billion worldwide haul that ranks it third all-time. Strong legs, broad international appeal including China, and sustained audience engagement through multiple weekends have locked in its lead as the year’s clear box-office champion. Avengers: Doomsday, slated for a December 18 release, holds the only realistic path to an upset if it achieves unprecedented global performance exceeding $2.5 billion, though historical patterns and current tracking make such an outcome a steep climb.