Recent Migration Policy Institute analysis of DHS data through July 2026 shows annualized deportations running at roughly 660,000 for fiscal year 2026, up 26% from the prior four-year average yet well below the administration’s one-million-per-year target. Interior arrests have risen steadily, reaching 39% of totals by mid-2026, while most removals still originate from border encounters. Additional funding via recent legislation has expanded ICE capacity, but logistical constraints, court backlogs, and narrower definitions of formal removals versus returns continue to shape outcomes. These factors underpin trader consensus around the 400-500k range for calendar 2026, with limited movement into higher bins despite accelerating enforcement trends.