Recent Houthi-imposed restrictions on Saudi-linked vessels since July, combined with targeted attacks and territorial advances near the strait, have sustained selective rerouting of crude tankers and some container services around the Cape of Good Hope, anchoring weekly transits near 190-209. Live tracking shows daily volumes averaging 28-35 vessels through late October, with 36 transits recorded on October 25 and three-day totals near 58, consistent with the 55% market-implied odds for that band. Broader Asia-Europe capacity returning via Suez has supported the moderate floor while Saudi crude flows remain constrained, keeping higher or lower bands at single-digit probabilities. Trader consensus, backed by real capital, prices in these persistent but non-total disruptions ahead of further data releases.