Ongoing security incidents and Iranian attacks on merchant vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits severely constrained during the week of October 26, with AIS-visible commercial crossings averaging roughly 8 per day against a pre-crisis baseline near 85. This environment of elevated war-risk premiums, rerouting via Fujairah and Oman terminals, and dark-ship activity underpins the 47% implied probability on the 20-24 outcome and 29% on 25-29. Traders price in persistently low throughput despite occasional U.S.-facilitated movements and partial oil-flow rebounds, as measured by sources such as IMF PortWatch and Kpler. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in tanker incidents or shifts in naval coordination that could alter routing visibility and weekly totals.