Persistent security risks from Iranian attacks on merchant vessels, coupled with a U.S. naval blockade and vessels operating dark (AIS-off), have kept AIS-visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 8-13 per day in late October 2026. This environment positions the 20-24 weekly total as the market's leading outcome at 57% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus on subdued volumes amid October's record attack pace. Recent diplomatic talks in Tehran and modest upticks in preliminary crossings (e.g., 130 for the week to Oct. 25) provided limited support for the 25-29 bin at 28%, while <20 captures downside from further disruptions. Oil flow data from Kpler and similar sources show volatile but sub-prewar clearances, underscoring how geopolitical tensions continue to shape aggregated trader sentiment on chokepoint throughput.