The Idaho Senate race pits incumbent Republican Jim Risch against independent Todd Achilles, with minor independent and Libertarian candidates also on the ballot after the Democratic nominee withdrew. Recent polling shows Risch leading by margins ranging from six to over 20 points, reflecting Achilles’ record fundraising for a challenger and targeted advertising that has narrowed the typical Republican advantage in the state. Trader consensus around a 20-25 point Republican margin or other outcomes aligns with historical base rates for Idaho while accounting for vote splitting and late undecideds. The November 3 election timing leaves room for turnout shifts among Republican-leaning voters to determine the precise spread.