US manufacturing activity has sustained expansion into October amid resilient new orders and employment gains, though elevated input costs and supply-chain frictions from tariffs and energy prices continue to shape expectations for the ISM Manufacturing PMI. September’s reading of 54.5 reflected steady demand and backlog growth alongside a sharp rise in the prices index to 77.9, consistent with broader inflation pressures evident in recent CPI and PPI data. Market-implied odds cluster tightly around 53–55, reflecting uncertainty over whether October’s report will match S&P Global’s firmer flash reading or moderate due to seasonal holiday effects and persistent cost pass-through. Traders are weighing these factors against the upcoming November 2–3 release and the Federal Reserve’s December policy decision, where stronger-than-expected readings could reinforce rate-hike expectations.