Traders assign a 97.3% probability against disqualification of an Arab party because Israel's Central Elections Committee must first approve any ban, after which the Supreme Court typically reviews and has overturned most such petitions in recent cycles. Primary factors include constitutional thresholds requiring clear evidence of support for armed struggle or rejection of Israel's democratic character, combined with the absence of active filings meeting those standards ahead of the vote. Historical patterns of minority party participation and coalition dynamics further support continuity. Potential shifts remain possible if new committee evidence emerges or if the Court alters its precedent on eligibility challenges before ballots are finalized.