The October 27, 2026, Israeli election produced final certified results showing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc with 53 Knesset seats, the main opposition bloc with 48, and Arab-led parties with 19, falling short of a 61-seat majority and triggering standard coalition negotiations rather than annulment proceedings. The Central Elections Committee confirmed the vote count after reviewing absentee ballots, with turnout at 77.9 percent, and stated that polling stations operated lawfully despite Likud allegations of foreign interference and fraud targeting Arab voters. Israeli police and Shin Bet assessments found no evidence supporting systematic irregularities sufficient to invalidate outcomes, while President Isaac Herzog called for targeted probes without questioning overall integrity. Traders assign 95.9 percent probability to “No” because Israeli courts rarely annul national elections absent conclusive proof of widespread invalidation, and current inquiries point toward narrower remedies if any. Late-breaking court rulings on foreign-funding claims or unprecedented procedural reversals before the November 10 swearing-in remain the primary low-probability paths that could still shift the outcome.