Recent September core CPI prints at 2.1% year-over-year (up from 1.7% in August) and core-core at 2.4% reflect moderating but still above-target pressures from food, housing, and import costs amid a weak yen and Middle East energy factors. The Bank of Japan’s October 30 outlook declared underlying inflation generally consistent with its 2% target for the first time since 2013, while holding the policy rate at 1.25% and forecasting 2.5% for fiscal 2026. Traders price the ≤1.9% bucket at 68.3% because base effects, energy subsidies, and prior tightening are expected to pull the full-year 2026 average lower than recent monthly readings, with limited upside risk priced into the 2.0-2.4% range at 32.4%. The December BOJ meeting and November CPI data remain key near-term catalysts for any reassessment of the implied path.