Incumbent Republican Tim Walberg faces Democrat Christian Vukasovich in Michigan’s 5th congressional district, rated Solid or Safe Republican by major forecasters with an R+13 partisan voter index. Walberg’s 33-point 2024 victory and unopposed primary, combined with the challenger’s limited fundraising, anchor expectations for a Republican margin in the low-to-mid 20s. No recent district-specific polls, debates, or national shifts have altered this baseline, so trader pricing clusters on 15–30 point Republican wins. Minor variations in turnout or third-party vote share could adjust the final spread, but the district’s consistent Republican performance limits the scope for larger deviations.