The MN-02 race for the open seat vacated by Rep. Angie Craig remains centered on suburban voter shifts in the southern Twin Cities metro area, where forecasts from models like Vote-Scope project a Democratic win by roughly 14 points amid a district PVI of D+3. Matt Little secured the Democratic nomination after a contested primary, while Eric Pratt won the Republican primary unopposed; the sole recent public poll showed Little ahead 52-40 among likely voters. Low outside spending and limited national attention have kept the contest quiet, with traders assigning the highest probabilities to Democratic margins in the 10-20 point range. Historical results, including the prior 13.5-point Democratic edge, combined with suburban trends and modest Republican enthusiasm, sustain uncertainty around the precise margin until final turnout and any late-cycle developments clarify the outcome.