Incumbent Democrat Ben Ray Luján holds a consistent polling edge of roughly 16 points over Republican Larry Marker ahead of the November 3 election, driven by strong partisan loyalty and independent support in a state that favors Democrats. Recent surveys from Research & Polling and SurveyUSA confirm this margin has held steady since August, reflecting Luján’s incumbency advantages and Marker’s limited visibility after a write-in primary path. Trader consensus on wider Democratic margins aligns with these aggregates and historical statewide trends, while the close split on leading outcomes highlights uncertainty over final turnout, early voting patterns, and any last-minute shifts in a low-profile contest. No major campaign events have altered the trajectory in recent weeks.