Recent Israeli elections left Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc short of a Knesset majority, positioning him as caretaker prime minister amid prolonged coalition talks and opposition efforts to exclude Arab parties. This uncertainty, combined with Pedro Sánchez’s snap Spanish election on November 29 following parliamentary defeats on housing reforms and a recent train disaster eroding his campaign, accounts for their elevated shares in trader pricing. Sébastien Lecornu faces ongoing French protests, student unrest, and austerity measures that heighten government instability risks. The dominant 68.5% probability on no change before 2027 reflects broad expectations of continuity for most other listed leaders through the end of 2026, with only these near-term political pressures producing measurable shifts in implied probabilities.